MORNING NEWS on 03.10.16

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220
Mexico City

D’Origin
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GLOBAL MARKET STATISTICs 03 Oct 2016
LOTS Trading Club | lots.co.id
Lautandhana Securindo | YJ

Net Buy (Sell) by foreigners:
Yesterday…………377bn
Last month…….13.59tn
This month……..(3.28tn)
Last year……….(22.53tn)
This year………..35.05tn
Since 2014……………….55.15tn
Peak since 2014……….60.59tn
——————————-
*Tax Amnesty Dashboard*
Repatriasi………..Rp137tn
Deklarasi LN…….Rp951tn
Deklarasi DN….Rp2,533tn
Tebusan murni…Rp93.7tn
Total tebusan…..Rp97.2tn
Total harta……..Rp3,621tn
——————————–
DJIA………18308 +165. +0.91%
S&P 500…..2168 +17.1 +0.80%
Nasdaq……5312 +42.8 +0.81%
FTSE……….6899  -20.1  -0.29%
DAX……….10511 +105. +1.01%
CAC…………4448 +4.42 +0.10%
Nikkei…….16449  -244.  -1.46%
HSI………..23297  -442.  -1.86%
JCI………..5364.80 -67.1 -1.24%
LQ45……..922.20  -1.86%

US10Yr……..1.59 +0.03 +2.58%
EUR………1.1235 +0.00 +0.12%
IDR………..13042 +70.0 +0.54%
EIDO……….26.44  -0.14  -0.53%
TLK………..66.08 +0.38 +0.58%

Crudeoil….48.24 +0.41 +0.86%
Gold………..1316  -4.50  -0.34%
CPO……RM2616  as of Sep 29
Nickel……10455  as of Sep 30
Tin………..20275  as of Sep 30
Coal……….78.45  as of Sep 30

:::» High-Low Nickel Price «:::
– 2011: H 29300, L 16750
– 2012: H 21800, L 15250
– 2013: H 18725, L 13285
– 2014: H 21150, L 13413
– 2015: H 15550, L   8550
– 2016: H 10895, L   7595

:::» High-Low Tin Price «:::
– 2011: H 33300, L 18525
– 2012: H 25500, L 17345
– 2013: H 25025, L 18850
– 2014: H 23700, L 18395
– 2015: H 19900, L 13365
– 2016: H 20275, L 13300!!!

:::» High-Low Crude Oil «:::
– 2011: H 113.93, L 75.67
– 2012: H 109.77, L 77.69
– 2013: H 110.53, L 86.68
– 2014: H 107.26, L 53.27
– 2015: H   61.43, L 33.98
– 2016: H   51.65, L 26.05

:::» High-Low Coal Price «:::
– 2011: H 138.50, L 108.95
– 2012: H 118.95, L   78.05
– 2013: H   94.05, L   76.10
– 2014: H   84.25, L   61.80
– 2015: H   71.10, L   49.60
– 2016: H   78.45, L   48.80!!!

:::» High-Low Gold Price«:::
– 2011: H 1900, L 1314
– 2012: H 1790, L 1539
– 2013: H 1693, L 1189
– 2014: H 1383, L 1140
– 2015: H 1302, L 1046
– 2016: H 1375, L 1074

:::» High-Low Palm Oil «:::
– 2011: H 3927, L 2787
– 2012: H 3568, L 2027
– 2013: H 2645, L 2167
– 2014: H 2922, L 1930
– 2015: H 2451, L 1800
– 2016: H 2778, L 2188

:::» High-Low USD-IDR «:::
– 2011: H   9155, L   8465
– 2012: H   9705, L   8935
– 2013: H 12261, L   9618
– 2014: H 12725, L 11289
– 2015: H 14828, L 12459
– 2016: H 14001, L 12906

:::» High-Low EIDO «:::
– 2011: H 34.64, L 23.56
– 2012: H 31.80, L 25.90
– 2013: H 36.16, L 21.14
– 2014: H 29.57, L 21.68
– 2015: H 28.27, L 16.52
– 2016: H 27.06, L 19.65

:::» High-Low IHSG «:::
– 2011: H 4196, L 3218
– 2012: H 4418, L 3635
– 2013: H 5251, L 3838
– 2014: H 5263, L 4161
– 2015: H 5524, L 4033
– 2016: H 5476, L 4409

:::» High-Low Dow Jones «:::
– 2011: H 12876, L 10404
– 2012: H 13661, L 12035
– 2013: H 16588, L 13293
– 2014: H 18103, L 15340
– 2015: H 18351, L 15370
– 2016: H 18668, L 15450
••••••••
MARKET WRAP on MONDAY MORNING
(By: D’ORIGIN; Source: BN, CNBC, Reuters, WSJ, AP)

·         Deutsche Bank rebounds on speculation of lower settlement
·         S&P 500 posts best quarterly gain in 2016, led by technology
·         European & Asian stock markets were sharply lower Friday as investor sentiment was dented by renewed worries about the financial health of Deutsche Bank
·         Developing-nation financial shares decline to two-week low

》Markets
U.S. stocks rallied, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 160 points, as worries over the health of European banks diminished after a report said Deutsche Bank AG is nearing a less-costly settlement with regulators than investors feared.

Relief swept over equities as Agence France-Presse reported the German lender is near a $5.4 billion deal with the Justice Department, less than half an initial request, to settle a probe related to bad mortgages. Financial shares in the S&P 500 Index jumped the most in eight weeks, after falling yesterday to the lowest since Aug. 2. Costco Wholesale Corp.increased the most in more than two months to boost consumer-staples companies after its earnings beat estimates.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to 2,168.27 at 4 p.m. in New York, posting a fourth consecutive quarterly gain and the strongest this year. The index closed near its average price during the past 50 days. The Dow rose 164.70 points, or 0.9 percent, to 18,308.15 today. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.8 percent. About 7.6 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 15 percent higher than the three-month average.

Concerns about weakness among European banks and the potential impact on the global economy have buffeted markets, with the Dow lurching by triple digits in every session this week for the first time since January. Despite today’s rally, the S&P 500 closed with a second-straight monthly drop, down 0.1 percent. The CBOE Volatility Index wiped out a September climb, sliding 5.2 percent today to 13.29.

The main U.S. stocks benchmark posted a 3.3 percent third-quarter gain, its best this year, bolstered by technology shares as the group capped the strongest period since 2013. Financial stocks rose 4 percent, while industrials added 3.6 percent.

Deutsche Bank wiped out a 9 percent drop in German trading Friday to rise 6.4 percent after the AFP report. Its shares tumbled to a record low yesterday as a Bloomberg Newsreport signaling growing concern among some of the lender’s clients exacerbated pressure caused by the DOJ’s initial demand for $14 billion to settle the probe. Chief Executive John Cryan told staff in a memo Friday the bank’s balance sheet is safer than at any point in the past two decades.

Meanwhile global stock markets were sharply lower Friday as investor sentiment was dented by renewed worries about the financial health of Deutsche Bank following reports that some hedge funds were moving their businesses out of Germany’s biggest bank.

European stocks started lower. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 1.1 percent to 6,847.05 while France’s CAC 40 sank 1.7 percent to 4,366.89. Germany’s DAX lost 1.6 percent to 10,243.71. Futures augured a tepid start on Wall Street. S&P futures and Dow futures both lost 0.2 percent.

Shares of Deutsche Bank nosedived to below 10 euros a share for the first time after reports said some hedge funds have taken measures to reduce risks associated with the German bank. The company has been a source of concerns for investors for weeks since U.S. authorities disclosed that they are seeking $14 billion from the bank to settle legal claims over its sales of mortgage securities in 2007 and 2008.

The bank said it had struck a deal to sell a subsidiary and stressed that it was not seeking government help, but investors are worried about what will happen to Germany’s biggest lender and to the broader financial system if Deutsche Bank runs low on capital. Analysts said the bank’s troubles are raising scrutiny over other banks in Europe, which are also in talks regarding mortgage settlements with U.S. authorities.

In the meantime, the Caixin monthly purchasing managers’ index, which is closely watched for insights into China’s economy, ticked up to 50.1 for September from the previous month’s 50.0 reading.

The tiny expansion in activity and gains in overall new orders for the third straight month offered a glimmer of hope for the world’s second-largest economy that has been grappling with a prolonged slowdown. But the private survey result was not strong enough to relieve investors outside China.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slumped 1.5 percent to 16,449.84 and South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.2 percent to 2,043.63. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index sank 1.9 percent to 23,297.15. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.7 percent to 5,435.90. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.2 percent to 3,004.70. Stocks in Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries were lower.

Emerging-market stocks fell on the final day of their best quarter since 2012 as concern about the finances of Deutsche Bank AG sapped risk appetite.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped for the first time in four days, declining 1.1 percent to 903.46. Benchmark gauges from Russia and Turkey to South Korea and Malaysia each fell at least 0.7 percent. A gauge of developing-nation exchange rates rose less than 0.1 percent Friday and posted a third consecutive quarterly gain.
•••••••••••
MARKET WRAP on MONDAY MORNING
(By: D’ORIGIN; Source: BN, CNBC, Reuters, WSJ, FT)

OIL: Benchmark U.S. crude lost 54 cents to $47.29 per barrel in New York. The contract gained 78 cents, or 1.7 percent, to close at $47.83 a barrel on Thursday. Oil prices surged earlier this week after the nations of OPEC, which collectively produce more than third of the world’s oil, agreed to a small cut in production in a surprise decision. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 61 cents to $49.20 a barrel in London.

CURRENCIES: The dollar fell to 101.03 yen from 101.16 yen while the euro weakened to $1.118 from $1.122.

TREASURY: The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was up 4 basis points at 1.596 percent, while the 10-year German Bund yield was little changed at -0.118 percent, according to Reuters data. US10YT=RR DE10YT=RR

GOLD: Spot gold prices XAU= fell $3.29 or 0.25 percent, to $1,316.76 an ounce.
•••••••
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(By: D’ORIGIN; Source: BN, REUTERS, Others)

Week Ahead
○ Payroll growth in the U.S. probably picked up in September as employers added about 175,000 workers, signaling steady labor-market improvement, based on economists’ projections ahead of a government report.

○The focus of the U.S. presidential race shifts to the Oct. 4 debate between the running mates — Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence. It’s their only face-to-faceforum. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continue to campaign in swing states ahead of their next showdown, on Oct. 9 in St. Louis.

○The annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank takes place in Washington.

○U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and her most senior ministers speak at the Conservative Party’s annual conference as investors are focused on Brexit developments.

○Australia and Poland set interest rates.

Monday, Oct. 3
·         CENTRAL BANKS: Kazakhstan rate decision.
·         ECONOMY: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI (Sept. final) and construction spending (Aug.); Markit Mexico PMI manufacturing (Sept.); Brazil monthly trade balance and manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Australia house prices (Sept.); Indonesia CPI (Sept.); Singapore private home prices (3Q); Thailand CPI (Sept.); South Africa manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Turkey inflation and PMI (Sept.); Euro-area manufacturing PMI (Sept.); U.K. manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Russia manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Hungary manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Poland manufacturing PMI (Sept.); Czech manufacturing PMI and budget balance (Sept.)
·         ENERGY/COMMODITIES: USDA grain-export ratings (weekly), Manitoba crop update (weekly).
·         U.S. factory activity probably stagnated in September after contracting a month earlier, underscoring persistent weakness that is hounding American manufacturing, economists forecast the Institute for Supply Management to report. 10:00 in Washington.
·         Automakers report U.S. September sales, usually starting with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV at about 10:00 EDT. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate may have been about 17.6 million, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
·         U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond may give indications of his tax and spending plans at the Conservative Party conference. About 12:00 in Birmingham (07:00 EDT). U.K. Trade Secretary Liam Fox, one of the key ministers involved in Brexit negotiations, speaks at about 15:45.
·         Nobel Prize week begins in Stockholm. The first prize awarded is for physiology or medicine, followed by physics on Oct. 4 and chemistry on Oct. 5. The Peace Prize will be awarded in Oslo on Oct. 7. Click here for background on the prizes and timing.
·         Brazil President Michel Temer travels to Argentina and Paraguay to meet Presidents Mauricio Macri and Horacio Cartes. They are expected to discuss regional trade and Venezuela’s membership in the Mercosur trade bloc. It’s Temer’s first bilateral trip since he succeeded the impeached Dilma Rousseff.
·         The South African Reserve Bank holds its biannual Monetary Policy Forum and releases its Monetary Policy Review analyzing inflation and interest-rate trends over the past six months. 18:00 in Pretoria (12:00 EDT).
•••••••
AGENDA EKONOMI & AKSI KORPORASI

BANK INDONESIA
•JISDOR (USD-IDR) -> 30-09-16 -> Rp 12,998
•BI 7-Day RR -> 22-09-2016->  5 %
•Cadangan Devisa -> 31-08-16 -> $ 113,538 -> M1
•Inflasi IHK (yoy) -> Agust 2016 -> 2.79 %
•Target Inflasi 2016  -> 4%->  (±1%)

·         3 Oktober 2016
Siaran Pers Inflasi September 2016
·         6 Oktober 2016
Laporan Survei Konsumen September 2016
·         7 Oktober 2016
Rilis Statistik Cadangan Devisa September 2016
·         10 Oktober 2016
Laporan Survei Kegiatan Dunia Usaha Triwulan III 2016
·         11 Oktober 2016
Laporan Survei Penjualan Eceran Agustus 2016
·         14 Oktober 2016
Laporan Survei Perbankan Triwulan III 2016
·         17 Oktober 2016
Statistik Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia Agustus 2016
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia September 2016

·         19 & 20 Oktober 2016
Rapat Dewan Gubernur Oktober 2016
·         31 Oktober 2016
Perkembangan Uang Beredar September 2016

·         CASH DIVIDEND
MLBI->  CUM DATE ->05.10.16 -> 95/SHARE
HEXA-> CUM DATE ->04.10.16-> 1634/SHARE
AUTO -> CUM DATE ->30.10.16-> 9/SHARE

·         RIGHT ISSUE (TENTATIVE)
SRAJ -> CUM DATE-> 03.10.16-> AMOUNT 280; RATIO 1:2 -> 3 :2
AKKU -> CUM DATE-> 05.10.16-> AMOUNT 101; RATIO 1:2 -> 2:49
WIKA -> CUM DATE-> 05.10.16-> AMOUNT ….; RATIO 1:2 -> …..
JSMR -> CUM DATE-> 31.10.16-> AMOUNT …..; RATIO 1:2 -> ……

·         WARAN BONUS
BCAP -> CUM DATE-> 02.10.16-> AMOUNT 1500; RATIO 1:2 -> 1 :1
BACA -> CUM DATE-> 02.10.16-> AMOUNT 100; RATIO 1:2 -> 54 :43

(sumber : RTI, IPOT, BI, BPS)
•••••••••••••••
MARKET RECAPs on 03.10.16
By: D’ORIGIN – Cynthia Nadeak
(Dedicated for Brava Radio 103.8 FM)

»IHSG
Potensi indeks bergerak menguat terbatas dikisaran 5275 – 5455 sepekan ini

Cermati beberapa sektor saham dibawah ini:
•Infrastruktur & Property yang akan memperoleh sentimen positif dari program Tax Amnesty periode 1 yang sukses digelar (INTP, SMBR, ADHI, WIKA, DMAS, ASRI)
•Komoditas, yang akan menguat secara momentum karena efek badai La-Nina, minimnya pasokan dan keputusan sementara OPEC yang akan membatasi produksi minyak mentah (AALI, LSIP, INCO, ANTM, TINS, ELSA, AKRA, ADRO, ITMG, PTBA )
•Saham Perbankan, Consumer Goods & Rumah Sakit yang masih akan menjadi kebutuhan besar dan diuntungkan dengan relaksasi kebijakan moneter yang memungkinkan utk kenaikan daya beli masyarakat & peningkatan life style + perubahan cuaca pasca panen + pelaksanaan perhelatan pilkada serentak (BBTN, BMRI, BBNI, MPPA, RALS, SILO, MIKA, KAEF, INAF)

Pilihan saham:
4 Saham big caps: BBCA, SMGR, JSMR, INDF
4 Saham small-mid caps: ICBP, PTPP, AISA, BSDE
4 Saham High specs:  PGAS, INAF, MEDC, INCO
**4 must have stocks: BBRI, ASII, TLKM, GGRM

»Komoditas
•Prediksi hasil pertemuan OPEC yang akan mengurangi pasokan produksi masih dinilai belum sepenuhnya akan berhasil menjaga kestabilan harga. Negara Produsen Iran vs Arab Saudi diprediksi masih akan melanjutkan produksi dan menghantui fluktuasi tinggi harga + pasokan minyak mentah.
•Harga jual CPO kembali tertekan. Badai La Nina yang terlambat datang serta pelemahan mata uang Ringgit diprediksi akan memicu kenaikan produksi.
•Harga tembaga berpeluang mengalami kenaikan didukung oleh peningkatan permintaan dari Tiongkok + aksi penutupan tambang liar di Philipina yang mengakibatkan pasokan tembaga di pasar global tertekan.

»RUPIAH vs USD
Ruang penguatan Rupiah dipekan ini kembali terbuka dengan kawalan ketat oleh intervensi BI. Kesuksesan program Tax Amnesty akan menjadi tahanan pergerakan Rupiah.

Prediksi pergerakan Rupiah pekan ini akan berada di kisaran Rp.12.900 – Rp13.100 per dolar AS.

Selamat berinvestasi & berkarya……
————-

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