|InfoSaham-06.11.2020| Morning ‘Origin Interactive News’

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“Global shares jump as Biden edges toward victory, dollar slips”

By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar slipped and global stock markets surged on Thursday as Democrat Joe Biden drew closer to victory in the tight U.S. elections, while the Bank of England became the latest central bank to say it will boost stimulus, a move that favors stocks.

Biden appeared set to defeat Republican President Donald Trump as counting continued from voting on Tuesday. But the Trump campaign said it expected to launch more legal action and would emerge victorious.

Investors leapt on the prospect of gridlock in Congress and the notion Silicon Valley will be spared greater oversight as the Democrats are unlikely to win control of the Senate.

Tech shares in Europe jumped 2.5% .SX8P, extending a rally of just over 8% this week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index, S&P 500 and Dow industrials rose 2% or more.

European stocks hit two-week highs on strong earnings results and after the BofE increased its already huge bond-buying stimulus by 150 billion pounds ($195 billion), or about 50 billion pounds more than expected.

The Federal Reserve kept its loose monetary policy intact and pledged again to do whatever it can in coming months to sustain a U.S. economic recovery threatened by the spreading coronavirus pandemic.

“All indications in the market seem to really be putting this whole event in the rearview mirror, which is a little surprising to me considering how tight some of this stuff is,” said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist and senior trader at Incapital in Minneapolis.

Equities have surged as the size of a fiscal stimulus deal reached in a divided Congress to support the economy is likely to be much smaller than anticipated under a Biden-led blue wave.

But that likely will force the Fed to pump more money into markets, which ultimately supports equities.

MSCI’s benchmark for global equity markets .MIWD00000PUS rose 2.26% to 591.98, while Europe’s broad FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 closed up 0.94% at 1419.84.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 1.94% and the S&P 500 .SPX gained 2.10%. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 2.61%, lifting the tech-heavy index to possibly close at its highest level since early September.

Overnight in Asia, stocks .MIAPJ0000PUS rallied 2% to their highest since February 2018. Japan’s Nikkei .N225 rose 1.7% to a more than nine-month top, South Korea .KS11 gained 2.4% and Chinese blue chips.

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-markets/global-shares-jump-as-biden-edges-toward-victory-dollar-slips-idUSKBN27K13L

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“Wall Street rallies on bets for divided U.S. Congress, Fed holds steady”

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks jumped on Thursday, as investors bet Republicans would retain control of the Senate and block any major policy changes under a possible Joe Biden White House that could dampen corporate profits.

With votes still being counted in battleground states, investors were abandoning cautious pre-election positioning, driving all of Wall Street’s main indexes up for a fourth straight session.

While a fiscal stimulus package is widely expected, the size of any deal reached in a divided Congress is likely to be much smaller than anticipated. This in turn could pressure the U.S. Federal Reserve to pump more funds into the financial system, supporting equity prices.

Stocks got a brief additional boost from the Fed’s statement on Thursday.

The central bank kept its loose monetary policy intact and again pledged to do whatever it can to sustain an economy severely damaged by the coronavirus pandemic.

In the post-statement press conference, Chair Powell said the Fed would not consider directly funding fiscal activities.

Biden was edging closer to victory after winning Michigan and Wisconsin, but his Democratic party appeared unlikely to win the Senate. This eased investor worries about tighter regulations on Big Tech and a corporate tax hike.

“They stayed with what the market had expected. I think there’s concern about the economy and the trajectory of the economy.

But basically, I don’t think they surprised the market; they maintained their accommodative stance and maintained that fiscal stimulus is needed,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

“Given the scenario of an election where you’re still counting ballots, it would be very difficult for the Fed to insert itself at this point.”

Some market participants cautioned, however, that it was not yet certain that Congress will remain split, so there is a slim chance markets could be in for a shock.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 542.52 points, or 1.95%, to 28,390.18, the S&P 500 gained 67.01 points, or 1.95%, to 3,510.45 and the Nasdaq Composite added 300.15 points, or 2.59%, to 11,890.93.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-rallies-on-bets-for-divided-u-s-congress-fed-holds-steady-idUSKBN27L0XK

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“Dollar drops as stocks surge, Fed keeps policy unchanged”

By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar fell to a two-week low against a basket of currencies and a seven-month low against the Japanese yen as surging stock markets reduced demand for the greenback, and as the Federal Reserve kept its loose monetary policy intact.

Stocks jumped as bets on Republicans retaining control of the Senate eased worries of major policy changes that could hurt corporate America under a Joe Biden White House, even as the presidential election hung in the balance. [.N]

Democrat Biden on Thursday inched nearer to victory over President Donald Trump in an exceedingly close U.S. election that hinged on razor-thin margins, while the Republican president launched a flurry of lawsuits hoping to slow down his opponent.

But the so called “blue wave,” where Democrats also take control of the Senate in congressional elections, looked unlikely.

“The investor class loves the idea of a Democratic president and a Republican Senate that will return back to essentially a steady, normal state of affairs,” said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.

The dollar index fell 0.95% against a basket of currencies =USD to 92.51.

The euro EUR= jumped 0.99% to $1.1838. The dollar dropped 0.95% against the Japanese yen JPY= to 103.49 yen, the lowest since March 12, and breached technical support at 104 yen that will now likely form resistance.

The yuan CNH= gained to a more than two-year high of 6.5994. The Chinese currency has been heavily affected by Sino-U.S. disputes since the outbreak of a bilateral trade war in 2018.

The dollar has been hurt by the Fed’s zero rate policy and ongoing bond purchases as the U.S. central bank aims to stimulate growth after the economy was ravaged by business shutdowns due to COVID-19.

The U.S. central bank on Thursday pledged again to do whatever it can in coming months to sustain a U.S. economic recovery.

It was “virtually unchanged from the previous meeting’s message,” said Lou Brien, a market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.

Some analysts say the Fed may need to act further to boost the economy if there is no large fiscal spending, though others note that it is running out of tools.

If Treasury yields rise meaningfully the Fed is expected to shift more of its bond purchases to longer-dated debt to keep the rates low.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/global-forex-int/dollar-drops-as-less-stimulus-dents-expectations-of-higher-bond-yields-idUSKBN27L037

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Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ): 9M20 Result Quick Take

Ghibran Al Imran, Andre Benas, Shelly Setiadi – RHB Sekuritas

♦️ BBTN recorded net profit of IDR352bn an increase from 2Q20 (IDR311bn) and last year (-IDR505bn), which bring 9M20 net profit to IDR1.12trn (+39.8%). This numbers is significantly above our/ street estimates at 110% and 99% respectively which in our view, stems from lower-than-expected CoC. Net interest Income slightly increase to IDR 6.3trn(+2.2QoQ, -3.4%YoY) and 9M20 to IDR18.7trn (-3.3%YoY). PPOP stands at IDR1trn ( -8.8%QoQ, -31.3%YoY). NIM stayed about the same level at 3.1% (3.2%in 6M20 and 3.4 in 9M19). CoC is seen still at 0.8% (vs 6M20, 0.8%), but a decrease from last year (9M19,1.2%).

♦️ Loans was slightly down to IDR254trn(+1.2%Qoq, -0.8%YoY). Deposit increase significantly to IDR273trn (+20.8%QoQ,+18.,7%YoY), this driven by the increase in TD to IDR172trn (+32.5%QoQ,+25%YoY) CASA increase to TD to IDR101trn (+4.9%QoQ, 9.2%YoY). LDR is at 93.3% lower than 111% level in the previous quarter and last year.

♦️ NPL dropped to 4.6%, compared to 6M20 4.7% and 9M19 3.4%. Coverage Increased to 111.4% from 107.9% in 6M20 and 52.7% in 9M19. Restructures currently stand at IDR52.8trn or 20% of total outstanding loans.

More to come in our report, post analyst meeting. Thank you!

Credit Suisse (CS)

BBTN OUTPERFORM TP Rp1,800

Asian Daily: Indonesia – PT Bank Tabungan Negara Persero Tbk: 3Q results above consensus; credit cost cycle likely over. Maintain OUTPERFORM

• BBTN reported 3Q20 NII/Revenue/PPOP/NPAT growth of +1.2%/+0.7%/-8.8%/+13.2% QoQ, respectively. 9M20 NPAT reached Rp1.1 tn (+39.8% YOY), which was in line with CSe but ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates.

• 3Q20 loan growth reached +1.2% QoQ, primarily driven by resilient subsidised mortgage segment which grew +2.4% QoQ. Total deposit grew stronger at +21% QoQ supported by CA and TD, which helped BBTN to substantially lower its LDR to ~93% from its 5Y average of ~110%. For 4Q20, management expects loan growth recovery to continue, and believes room for further CoF decline exists.

• In terms of credit cost, CEO Pahala Mansury expects 4Q20 monthly trend of Rp120-150 bn. This should translate to FY20 credit cost of Rp2 tn (~0.7% of 2020E total loan) or below our 2020E estimates of Rp 2.8 tn (~1.2% of 2020E loan).

• We like BBTN given its positive transformation progress and attractive long-term outlook from Indonesia’s increasing housing ownership.

Maintain OUTPERFORM rating and TP of Rp1,800. BBTN currently trades at 2020/21E P/B of 0.8/0.7x, near -1SD of 5Y mean.

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akarta (ANTARA) – The government is progressing positively in its endeavors to restore the country’s economy impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic despite continued economic contraction in the 2020 third-quarter, Presidential Special Staff for Economic Affairs Arif Budimanta stated.

“We are optimistic that the economic recovery would be on the right track, and Indonesia is capable,” Budimanta noted in a statement here on Thursday.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) had earlier announced that Indonesia’s economy had shrunk 3.49 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter, narrower than the second-quarter contraction of 5.32 percent.

“Our economy has shown significant improvement and progress as compared to the second quarter when the pandemic began in Indonesia,” he stated while attributing the government’s spending to this positive development.

President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has instructed his ministers to streamline the budget to facilitate economic recovery, especially through the COVID-19 handling program.

The National Economic Recovery Program (PEN) has proven effective in reversing the economic downturn that Indonesia had experienced since March 2020, he pointed out.

The government’s spending in the third quarter of 2020 grew 9.76 percent and contributed 9.69 percent to the economic output.

Household spending in the third quarter of 2020 fell 4.04 percent, while investment shrank 6.48 percent.

The country’s exports declined 10.82 percent, while its imports plunged 21.86 percent.

“The government itself, until the third quarter of 2020, has spent Rp1,840.9 trillion of the state budget, or 67.2 percent of the total state expenditure. This figure is up 15.4 percent as compared to the same period in 2019,” he pointed out.

The government, under the COVID-19 Handling and National Economic Recovery Program, disbursed a total of Rp268.3 trillion, or 38.6 percent of the total budget ceiling, as of Sept 23.

As of Nov 2, the realization had reached Rp366.86 trillion, or some 52.8 percent of the total ceiling at Rp695.2 trillion.
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Good morning from RHB♦️IB
Closing 5 Nov:

DJIA +542.52, +1.95%, 28,390.18
S&P500 +67.01, +1.95, 3,510.45
NASDAQ +300.15, +2.59, 11,890.93
♦️ U.S. stocks were higher after the close on Thursday, as gains in the Basic Materials, Technology and Industrials sectors led shares higher.
♦️ Markets rallied, though the U.S. is little closer to knowing who its leader will be for the next four years.
– Stocks rose for a fourth day with technology stocks leading the pack. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO) were higher after reporting stellar results as 5G demand is set to grow.

STOXX 600 +3.82, +1.05 @ 367.12
FTSE100 +22.92, +0.39% @ 5,906.18
DAX +243.87, +1.98% @ 12,568.09
CAC +61.14, +1.24 @ 4,983.99
♦️ European stock markets traded higher Thursday, with investors buying into the idea of more U.S. policy gridlock while the Bank of England added more stimulus to support the battered U.K. economy.

CRUDE OIL
BRENT Jan -0.24, -0.8% @ USD40.99
WTI Dec -0.31, -0.8% @ USD38.84
♦️ Crude oil prices slid Thursday as the slow-grinding vote in the U.S. election and too-close-to-call races between President Donald Trump and his challenger Joe Biden led to caution in the commodity sector’s most politically-sensitive market.

GOLD Dec +51.45, +2.7% @ USD1947.65
♦️ Gold prices had one of the biggest post-summer breakouts on Thursday, rallying 3%, as the dollar tumbled on expectations that the U.S. presidential election might soon deliver a winner who will work on issuing an economic stimulus for Covid-19 relief.

CPO Jan +111, +3.58% @ MYR3,208
♦️ CPO futures rises unabated reaching 8 yrs high on fundamentals and sentiment.

USD/MYR: 4.1455, -0.47%
GBP/MYR: 5.4480, +0.75%
MYR/JPY: 24.9657, -0.34%
MYR/SGD: 3.0709, +0.12%
IDR/USD: 14,392.5, -1.01%
THB/USD: 30.7700, -0.71%
JPY/USD: 103.52, -0.92%
USD/EUR: 1.1827, +0.90%
♦️ The dollar dropped a third day to its lowest level in more than two years as Joe Biden looked increasingly likely to claim the U.S. presidency.

RHB♦️IB

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Morning Notes 6 Nov 2020

Global Highlights:

Bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat didukung kenaikan saham sektor teknologi, energy, infrastruktur, ditengah perhitungan suara pemilihan umum Amerika Serikat (AS) masih berlanjut dan harapan pemenang pemilihan presiden dan kongres AS segera ditentukan.

Dow Jones ditutup menguat 542,850 poin (+1,95%) menjadi 28.390,51, S&P 500 meningkat 66,97 poin (+1,94%) ke level 3.510,41 dan Nasdaq naik 300,149 poin (+2,59%) ke posisi 11.890,78.

Para pelaku pasar juga akan mengarahkan fokus pada pernyataan terbaru kebijakan Federal Reserve setelah rapat dua hari. Dengan hasil pemilihan presiden yang belum pasti, bank sentral diperkirakan mengulangi janji untuk melakukan apa pun untuk menopang ekonomi.

Demokrat kemungkinan tidak akan memenangkan mayoritas Senat. Ini akan menyulitkan pemerintahan Demokrat untuk mengekang perusahaan-perusahaan teknologi besar dan pebisnis lain, terutama untuk menaikkan pajak.

Data dan agenda ekonomi global yang akan menjadi perhatian dari pelaku pasar pada pekan ini antara lain :

• Kamis 5 November 2020 : Rilis data perdagangan Australia, Kebijakan suku bunga Inggris, Kebijakan suku bunga dan Pernyataan The Fed

• Jumat 6 November 2020 : Rilis data pekerjaan dan pengangguran AS

Harga emas berjangka di COMEX New York Mercantile Exchange naik seiring melemahnya nilai tukar dolar AS. Harga emas untuk pengiriman Desember 2020 melonjak +1,9% menjadi US$1.932,80 per ons. Indeks dolar AS turun -0,95 persen menjadi 92,51

Harga minyak dunia turun pada Kamis (5/11/2020) dipicu kekhawatiran pelemahan permintaan. harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Desember 2020 turun -36 sen, atau sekitar -0,95, menjadi US$38,79 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange. Harga minyak mentah Brent melorot -30 sen, atau sekitar -0,7%, menjadi US$40,93 per barel di London ICE Futures Exchange.

Domestic Highlight:

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang minus 3,49% pada kuartal III 2020. Sebelumnya, pada kuartal II-2020, perekonomian Indonesia terkontraksi di minus 5,32% yoy. Dengan adanya kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi di kuartal III, menunjukan proses adaptasi ekonomi dalam situasi pandemi sangat baik.

Kurs rupiah terpantau kamis (5/11) ditutup menguat 1,27% ke level Rp 14.380 per dolar AS.

IHSG hari ini diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed kecenderungan menguat. Pergerakan hari ini akan dipengaruhi oleh kabar terkait pemilu AS, dan juga beberapa laporan keuangan emiten per kuartal III-2020 yang belum keluar.
Industri / emiten :

Rencana pemerintah menjadikan Java Integrated Industrial and Port Estate (JIIPE) di Gresik, Jawa Timur, sebagai Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus (KEK) akan menjadi katalis positif bagi AKR Corporindo (AKRA). JIIPE adalah kawasan terintegrasi pertama di Indonesia dengan total area 3.000 ha, yang terdiri dari kawasan industri, pelabuhan multiguna, area komersial dan perumahan. Tahun ini AKRA menargetkan penjualan lahan di JIIPE mencapai 30 hektare.

AKRA menyambut baik UU Cipta Kerja yang dirumuskan oleh pemerintahan. Kehadiran UU Cipta Kerja akan membuka peluang sebesar-besarnya kepada investor asing untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia dan menghidupkan kembali aktivitas industri juga permintaan dari investor domestik dan asing untuk kawasan Industri.
Rekomendasi Buy on weakness PT. AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA) Target Price Rp 3.010.

• AKRA melanjutkan momentum pertumbuhan laba bersih di 3Q20, tumbuh +34.0% YoY, menjadikan 9M20 tumbuh +17.7% YoY, tren pertumbuhan ini dapat berlanjut hingga FY20, didukung oleh pertumbuhan volume distribusi petroleum dan efisiensi biaya operasional yang terjaga.

• Pengesahan Omnibus Law menjadi katalis bagi pertumbuhan jangka panjang JIIPE. JIIPE telah berhasil mencetak penjualan 17 Ha hingga 9M20, >2x lebih tinggi dari penjualan 8 Ha pada FY19.

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Friday (06/11/2020) New Early BIRD Technical & Bandarmology Prespectives (Dr Cand., Edwin Sebayang, MBA, CSA®️., CIB®️-MNC Sekuritas)
IDX Composite 5,215 – 5,300
SUMMARY: STRONG BUY

11 TECHNICAL INDICATORS:
RSI (14): NEUTRAL
STOCH (9,6): BUY
MACD(12,26): BUY
ATR (14): HIGH VOLATILE
ADX (14): WEAK TREND BUY
CCI (14): OVERBOUGHT
HIGHS/LOW (14): BUY
VO: BUY
ROC: BUY
WILLIAMS R: OVERBOUGHT
BULLBEAR (13): OVERBOUGHT

BANDARMOLOGY:
TOP 5 BROKER ACCUMULATED
PERIODE (10 DAYS): DISTRIBUTION

NET BUY SELL ASING:
PERIODE (10 DAYS): DISTRIBUTION
STOCKS PICK:

BBRI 3,360 – 3,560
TECHNICAL INDICATORS: BUY 3,420
TARGET PRICE: 3,560
STOP-LOSS: 3,360
BANDARMOLOGY:
TOP 5 BROKER ACCUMULATED
PERIODE (10 DAYS): ACCUMULATION

NET BUY SELL ASING:
PERIODE (10 DAYS): ACCUMULATION
SMGR 9,300 – 10,300
TECHNICAL INDICATORS: BUY 9,850
TARGET PRICE: 10,300
STOP-LOSS: 9,300
BANDARMOLOGY:
TOP 5 BROKER ACCUMULATED
PERIODE (10 DAYS): DISTRIBUTION

NET BUY SELL ASING:
PERIODE (10 DAYS): DISTRIBUTION
ICBP 9,825 – 9,975
TECHNICAL INDICATORS: BUY 9,850
TARGET PRICE: 9,975
STOP-LOSS: 9,825
BANDARMOLOGY:
TOP 5 BROKER ACCUMULATED
PERIODE (10 DAYS): DISTRIBUTION

NET BUY SELL ASING:
PERIODE (10 DAYS): DISTRIBUTION
ACES 1,590 – 1,625
TECHNICAL INDICATORS: BUY 1,595
TARGET PRICE: 1,625
STOP-LOSS: 1,590

BANDARMOLOGY:
TOP 5 BROKER ACCUMULATED
PERIODE (10 DAYS): ACCUMULATION

NET BUY SELL ASING:
PERIODE (10 DAYS): ACCUMULATION
TLKM 2,600 – 2,900
TECHNICAL INDICATORS: BUY 2,710
TARGET PRICE: 2,900
STOP-LOSS: 2,600
BANDARMOLOGY:
TOP 5 BROKER ACCUMULATED
PERIODE (10 DAYS):
DISTRIBUTION

NET BUY SELL ASING:
PERIODE (10 DAYS): DISTRIBUTION
(Dr Cand. ES, MBA, CSA®️., CIB®️-MNCSek/Disc On) For more info www.mncsekuritas.id

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